The overarching theme of this blog has so far been to exemplify
the climatic characteristics of the city of Bangalore and how certain key variants
of the surrounding natural environment, both on the surface and in the
atmosphere, amalgamate to construct the cities unique climatic profile. However
this profile is not unconditional, it is not a stagnant cyclical pattern that can
be predicted with any actual certainty in future trends. Rather it is a stage in the ever-changing dynamic
of planetary meteorological conditions, which has seen vast extremes on both
ends of the climatic spectrum.
Through extensive research from an assortment
of scientific disciplines, climate variablity is now a near undisputed scientific truth.
Verification occurred by utilizing proxy
indicators as tools to determine the historical climatic record through the examination
of uninterrupted and preserved mediums, to replicate a direct measurement of climatic
conditions. For example the climatic past can be assessed by taking sample
cores out of ancient trees. The cores
reveal the annual growth of the tree through examination of the size of each individual
ring, providing insight on the annual climatic conditions of that particular
site. Another means in determining
conditions are core samples taken from the oceans and large bodies of
water. These sediment samples preserve
pollens and other plant materials which are undisturbed from surface conditions
and wave actions at water depth. As
important as these core types are for localities and the geologic near-term,
core samples taken from ice sheets and glaciers provide the most extensive
knowledge of paleoclimatologic conditions. The most prolific of these is the Vostok
core taken from Antarctica. This
particular core is the largest of its kind, and provides invaluable data covering
over 400,000 years. This data is derived
from encapsulated air bubbles found within the ice, which through analysis
determines the atmospheric composition, and greenhouse gas concentrations. The core
also provides insight in the amount of precipitation recieved, temperature
trends, as well as solar activity on the continent, which is a proven representative
of the annual global conditions of the past. Besides cores, other means of determining
historic records include the makeup and deviations of continental margins of
the sea floor. The analysis of the
geologic features show historic exposure to wave erosion points, as well as
graduated steppes which determine previous historic sea levels. In conjunction with variation in sea level
rise and fall, is the presence and remnants of periods of glaciation. Records
can be ascertained both temporally and spatially of glacial periods from
examination of present day geological compositions that modified the topography
under the glaciers extent. This is made
possible because of the sheer force of an advancing and retreating glacier, which
creates and leaves behind stratifications in rock such as granite, and
depositions of materials hundreds of miles from their origins.
As technological advancements are
continually made, the present knowledge of historical climate trends continues
to be reinforced and advanced. This also
holds true for the detail and scope of global climatic observations of the
present day. Documentation of weather data
for most of the “developed” world has been relatively comprehensive for the
past century and the “developed”, “developing” and “underdeveloped” world continually
improve upon the degree and accuracy of worldwide weather data. This rapid expansion
of knowledge has afforded a foundation for an established field that focuses on
the prediction of future climatic conditions. However it is a field that is by
no means unified, and has been the focus of heated debate for the past several
decades.Few experts in the field of climatology will deny the fact that the world is presently experiencing an overall warming trend. Data collected from the past century shows an average global increase in temperature amounting to 0.74 degrees Celsius, with Polar Regions and certain sub-tropical locations increasing over 2 degrees Celsius in the same period. Adding to the concern is that the warming trend has been most pronounced in the past few decades. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the period from 1995 to 2006 experienced eleven of the twelve warmest years on record. More recent data has shown every year of the 2000’s (besides 2008) making the top ten, and 2010 now tied for the warmest year on record with 2005, and 2011 being the ninth warmest year in recorded observational history. The predictions for Bangalore and the surrounding region range from an minimum increase in mean temperature of 2.7 ̊ Celsius, to a maximum increase of 4.7 ̊ Celsius by the end of the century.
In even the most extreme cases, the possibility of Bangalore
being directly affected by rising sea levels is impossible. In a situation
where all of the world’s ice sheets and glaciers were melted and the thermal
expansion of water is at its maximum, the sea level would be approximately 100
meters higher than present, an amount that is still over 700 meters lower than
the cities lowest elevation. However, a
more feasible sea level rise of 20 meters would displace upwards of 400 million
people, and a rise of 10 meters would inundate the Indian cities of Calcutta
and Mumbai with water, leading to catastrophic social and economic consequences.
A recent study by Jawaharlal Nehru
University of India projects a 1 meter rise in sea level would displace
7,000,000 Indians. Nevertheless
the models presented by the IPCC predict a maximum rise of 0.59 meters by the
end of the century.
Another concern of global warming is that of an increase in
extreme weather events. The level of confidence in an increase or decrease in
magnitude and frequency of such events varies, depending on the source and
location. Either way it could prove disastrous
for Bangalore. A 2009 study conducted by
the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Oregon State University, and the Desert
Research Institute of Nevada has correlated abrupt shifts in world climate with
a southward shift in seasonal South Asian monsoons. A significant reduction in vegetation growth was
seen when comparing stalagmites in China with equivocal ice core samples, which
researchers surmised, was caused by rain falling in the Indian Ocean rather
than on the continent, a scenario that would jeopardize the food security of
millions. However recent trends have
shown the opposite to hold true. The intensity,
frequency, and magnitude of monsoonal rains have been steadily increasing at a
rate of 10% since 1950, frequently leading to catastrophic flooding. One such example was in 2009, when 240 people
were killed just north of the city, and over 100,000 were left homeless after a
four day rain event which followed a period of prolonged drought. Flooding in
the region would likely be compounded from increased river flows from melting
snow pack, leading to a variety of issues, including disease, and agricultural
and structural damage. Another concern
in the region is the frequency and magnitude of tropical cyclones, which rarely
directly affect the city, but always affect it indirectly. Though trends show otherwise, many predict an
increase of tropical cyclone events, which have historically been some of the
world’s worst natural disasters. Finally the last and potentially most devastating
effect of global warming may be intense and prolonged heat waves, a scenario that
could result in hundreds, if not thousands of immediate deaths per year, as
well as an untold amount of deaths from the loss of available food resources.
Unlike the decreasing trend for all types of cyclones that reached landfall, those based in the Arabian Sea have increased overall in the past century.
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The nation of India is attentive to these potentially
catastrophic outcomes and has made a conscious effort to reduce their impact on
climate change. The country has
committed itself to a 20% to 25% reduction in energy usage by 2020 and recently
has proposed their 12th five year plan to reduce GHG emissions. While the nation currently spends an
estimated 2.8% of its gross domestic product on climate change programs, this
is still well short of projected required amount needed to fulfill their 2020
goal. Mitigation efforts include the implementation of solar farms, rainwater
collection sites, community organized drainage cleaning to reduce the magnitude
of floods, and the regrowth of mangrove forests that act as both carbon sinks
as well as protective barriers from tropical cyclones.
Though the efforts made by the Indian Government to mitigate
and adapt to climate change are noble and well intended programs, the effort
may be misplaced. The country is currently ravaged by rampant poverty, much of
which is extreme. This correlates with
the high level of illiteracy among its people as well as burgeoning population
that susceptible to starvation should food shortages occur from events
perpetuated by climatic change. The
country of India and the city of Bangalore are rich in natural and human
resources, but if a perpetual cycle of poverty continues to occur, the country and
city will always be subjected to an unnecessary risk.
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